Welcome to the Climate Dynamics Group at Queen's University, Canada
The Earth's terrestrial biosphere currently absorbs more CO2 than it releases, making it a net carbon sink.
This carbon uptake, driven by the CO2-fertilization effect, mitigates climate change. However, rising
temperatures enhance soil respiration, releasing more carbon into the atmosphere and amplifying climate change.
Earth System Models predict that after 2100, the land will switch from a carbon sink to a carbon-neutral state
or a net carbon source, even under mitigation scenarios. This potential switch represents a critical tipping
point in the climate system. Reducing the uncertainties, understanding the mechanisms, and identifying early
warning signals of this tipping point is of immense scientific and societal importance. The rapid advancements
in machine learning and dynamical systems theory in combination with increasing computational speed and
global earth observations creates new opportunities for advancing earth system modeling. Much of our research
supports the evaluation and development of the Canadian Earth System Model.
Deepak S.N., R.,
Seiler, C. and Monahan, A.H., 2024. A Global Sensitivity Analysis of Parameter Uncertainty in the CLASSIC Model.
Atmosphere-Ocean 1-13.
Kou-Giesbrecht, S., Arora, V.K.,
Seiler, C. and Wang, L., 2024. The impacts of modelling prescribed vs. dynamic land cover in a high-CO2 future scenario-greening of the Arctic and Amazonian dieback.
Biogeosciences , 21(14), pp.3339-3371.
Seiler, C., Kou-Giesbrecht, S., Arora, V.K., Melton, J.R., 2024. The Impact of Climate Forcing Biases and the Nitrogen Cycle on Land Carbon Balance Projections.
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 6, pp.1-22, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS003749
Sigmond, M., Anstey, J., Arora, V., Digby, R., Gillett, N., Kharin, V., Merryfield, W., Reader, C., Scinocca, J., Swart, N., Virgin, J., Abraham, C., Cole, J., Lambert, N., Lee, W.-S., Liang, Y., Malinina, E., Rieger, L., von Salzen, K.,
Seiler, C., Seinen, C., Shao, A., Sospedra-Alfonso, R., Wang, L., and Yang, D. 2023. Improvements in the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM) through systematic model analysis: CanESM5.0 and CanESM5.1,
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6553-6591, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6553-2023
Kou-Giesbrecht, S., Arora, V.K.,
Seiler, C., Arneth, A., Falk, S., Jain, A.K., Joos, F., Kennedy, D., Knauer, J., Sitch, S. and O'Sullivan, M., 2023. Evaluating nitrogen cycling in terrestrial biosphere models: a disconnect between the carbon and nitrogen cycles.
Earth System Dynamics, 14(4), pp.767-795.
Curasi, S.R., Melton, J.R., Humphreys, E.R., Wang, L.,
Seiler, C., Cannon, A.J., Chan, E. and Qu, B., 2023. Evaluating the Performance of the Canadian Land Surface Scheme Including Biogeochemical Cycles (CLASSIC) Tailored to the Pan‐Canadian Domain.
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 15(4), p.e2022MS003480.
Arora, V.K.,
Seiler, C., Wang, L. and Kou-Giesbrecht, S., 2022. Towards an ensemble-based evaluation of land surface models in light of uncertain forcings and observations.
Biogeosciences, 20, 1313–1355.
Seiler, C., Melton, J. R., Arora, V., Sitch, S., Friedlingstein, P., Arneth, A., Goll, D. S., Jain, A., Joetzjer, E., Lienert, S., Lombardozzi, D., Luyssaert, S., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Tian, H., Vuichard, N., Walker, A. P., Yuan, W., and Zaehle, S. 2022. Are terrestrial biosphere models fit for simulating the global land carbon sink?.
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, p.e2021MS002946. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002946
Gillett, N., Cannon, A., Malinina, E., Schnorbus, M., Anslow, F., Sun, Q., Kirchmeier-Young, M., Zwiers, F.,
Seiler, C., Zhang, X., Flato, G., Wan, H. Li, G. and Castellan, A. 2022. Human Influence on the 2021 British Columbia Floods.
Weather and Climate Extremes, p.100441.
Sospedra-Alfonso, R., Merryfield, W.J., Boer, G.J., Kharin, V.V., Lee, W.S.,
Seiler, C. and Christian, J.R., 2021. Decadal climate predictions with the Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5).
Geoscientific Model Development, 14(11), pp.6863-6891.
Seiler, C., Melton, J. R., Arora, V. K., and Wang, L., 2021. CLASSIC v1.0: the open-source community successor to the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) and the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CTEM) – Part 2: Global benchmarking,
Geoscientific Model Development, 14, 2371–2417, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2371-2021.
Melton, J. R., Arora, V. K., Wisernig-Cojoc, E.,
Seiler, C., Fortier, M., Chan, E., & Teckentrup, L., 2020. CLASSIC v1. 0: the open-source community successor to the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) and the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CTEM) – Part 1: Model framework and site-level performance.
Geoscientific Model Development, 13(6), 2825-2850.
Swart, N. C., Cole, J. N. S., Kharin, V. V., Lazare, M., Scinocca, J. F., Gillett, N. P., Anstey, J., Arora, V., Christian, J. R., Hanna, S., Jiao, Y., Lee, W. G., Majaess, F., Saenko, O. A.,
Seiler, C., Seinen, C., Shao, A., Solheim, L., von Salzen, K., Yang, D., and Winter, B, 2019. The Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5. 0.3).
Geoscientific Model Development, 12(11), 4823-4873.
Seiler, C., 2019. A Climatological Assessment of Intense Extratropical Cyclones from the Potential Vorticity Perspective.
Journal of Climate, 32, 2369–2380, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0461.1
Seiler, C. , Zwiers FW, Hodges KI, Scinocca J, 2017. How does dynamical downscaling affect model biases and future projections of explosive extratropical cyclones along North America’s Atlantic coast?.
Climate Dynamics, 1-16.
Rezaee, S.,
Seiler, C. , Pelot, R., Ghasemi, A., 2016. Will commercial fishing be a safe occupation in future? A framework to quantify future fishing risks due to climate change scenarios.
Weather and Climate Extremes 13 (2016): 73-85.
Seiler, C. , Zwiers, F.W., 2016. How well do CMIP5 climate models reproduce explosive cyclones in the extratropics of the Northern Hemisphere?.
Climate Dynamics 46 (3-4), 1241–1256
Seiler, C. , Zwiers, F.W., 2016. How will climate change affect explosive cyclones in the extratropics of the Northern Hemisphere?.
Climate Dynamics 46 (11), 3633–3644
Seiler, C. , Hutjes, R.W.A., Kruijt, B., Hickler, T., 2015. The sensitivity of wet and dry tropical forests to climate change in Bolivia.
Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 120 (3), 399–413
Seiler, C. , Hutjes, R.W.A., Kruijt, B., Quispe, J., Añez, S., Arora, V.K., Melton, J.R., Hickler, T., and Kabat, P., 2014. Modeling forest dynamics along climate gradients in Bolivia.
Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 119 (5), 758–775
Seiler, C. , Hutjes, R.W.A., and Kabat, P., 2013. Likely Ranges of Climate Change in Bolivia.
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 52 (6), 1303–1317
Seiler, C. , Hutjes, R.W.A., and Kabat, P., 2013. Climate Variability and Trends in Bolivia.
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 52 (1), 130–146
Seiler, C. , Moene, A.F., 2011. Estimating Actual Evapotranspiration from Satellite and Meteorological Data in Central Bolivia.
Earth Interactions, 15, 1–24
